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International Crisis Group->
Somaliland:Time For African Union Leadership
Africa Report N°110
23 May 2006
This report is also available in French.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4131
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
On 18 May 2006, the self-declared Republic of Somaliland marked
fifteen years since it proclaimed independence from Somalia.
Although its sovereignty is still unrecognised by any country, the
fact that it is a functioning constitutional democracy distinguishes
it from the majority of entities with secessionist claims, and a
small but growing number of governments in Africa and the West have
shown sympathy for its cause. The territory´s peace and stability
stands in stark contrast to much of southern Somalia, especially the
anarchic capital, Mogadishu, where clashes between rival militias
have recently claimed scores of lives. But Somalia´s Transitional
Federal Government (TFG), which is still struggling to overcome
internal divisions and establish its authority in southern Somalia,
also claims sovereignty over the territory, and the issue is
becoming an increasing source of tension. The African Union (AU)
needs to engage in preventive diplomacy now, laying the groundwork
for resolution of the dispute before it becomes a confrontation from
which either side views violence as the only exit.
In December 2005 President Dahir Rayale Kahin submitted Somaliland´s
application for membership in the AU. The claim to statehood hinges
on the territory´s separate status during the colonial era from the
rest of what became Somalia and its existence as a sovereign state
for a brief period following independence from Great Britain in June
1960. Having voluntarily entered a union with Somalia in pursuit of
the irredentist dream of Greater Somalia (including parts of
Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti), it now seeks recognition within the
borders received at that moment of independence. Despite fears that
recognition would lead to the fragmentation of Somalia or other AU
member states, an AU fact-finding mission in 2005 concluded the
situation was sufficiently "unique and self-justified in African
political history" that "the case should not be linked to the notion
of ´opening a pandora´s box´". It recommended that the AU "should
find a special method of dealing with this outstanding case" at the
earliest possible date. On 16 May 2006, Rayale met with the AU
Commission Chairperson, Alpha Oumar Konare, to discuss Somaliland´s
application for membership.
Somaliland has made notable progress in building peace, security and
constitutional democracy within its de facto borders. Hundreds of
thousands of refugees and internally displaced people have returned
home, tens of thousands of landmines have been removed and
destroyed, and clan militias have been integrated into unified
police and military forces. A multi-party political system and
successive competitive elections have established Somaliland as a
rarity in the Horn of Africa and the Muslim world. However, the TFG
continues strongly to oppose Somaliland independence.
Peacemakers have so far opted to tackle the issues sequentially:
first trying to establish a government for Somalia and only then
addressing the Somaliland question. European diplomats warn Crisis
Group that even raising the Somaliland issue at this time could
destabilise the peace process in the South. This approach risks both
sides becoming more entrenched and the dispute over Somali unity
more intractable. If the TFG´s authority expands, the dispute over
Somaliland´s status is likely to become an ever-increasing source of
friction, involving serious danger of violent conflict. Somaliland
has reacted angrily to the TFG´s calls for the UN arms embargo on
Somalia to be lifted so it could arm itself and has threatened to
increase its own military strength if this happens. The prospect of
a return to the major violence of the late 1980s is neither imminent
nor inevitable but it is genuine enough to merit urgent AU
attention.
For both sides, the issue of recognition is not merely political or
legal – it is existential. Most southern Somalis are viscerally
attached to the notion of a united Somali Republic, while many
Somalilanders – scarred by the experience of civil war, flight and
exile – refer to unity only in the past tense. For a generation of
Somaliland´s youth, which has no memories of the united Somalia to
which young Southerners attach such importance, Somaliland´s
sovereignty is a matter of identity.
Resolving Somaliland´s status is by no means a straightforward
proposition. A vocal minority of Somalilanders, including some
communities along the troubled border with neighbouring Puntland
(North East Somalia) and a violent network of jihadi Islamists
favour unity. Some observers fear that, in the absence of a
negotiated separation, the relationship between the two neighbours
could potentially become as ill-defined and volatile as that which
prevailed between Ethiopia and Eritrea prior to their 1998-2000
border war.
There are four central and practical questions:
should Somaliland be rewarded for creating stability and democratic
governance out of a part of the chaos that is the failed state of
Somalia?;
would rewarding Somaliland with either independence or significant
autonomy adversely impact the prospects for peace in Somalia or lead
to territorial clashes?;
what are the prospects for peaceful preservation of a unified Somali
Republic?; and
what would be the implications of recognition of Somaliland for
separatist conflicts elsewhere on the continent?
These questions need to be addressed through firm leadership, open
debate and dispassionate analysis of the issues and options – not
ignored, ostrich-like, in the hope that they will disappear. "The AU
cannot pretend that there is not such an issue", a diplomat from the
region told Crisis Group. "The issue cannot be allowed to drag on
indefinitely. It must be addressed". Somaliland´s application to the
AU offers an entry point for preventive diplomacy. The AU should
respond to Somaliland´s request for recognition by seizing the
opportunity to engage as a neutral third party, without prejudice to
the final determination of Somaliland´s sovereign status.
RECOMMENDATIONS
To the African Union:
1. Appoint a Special Envoy to consult with all relevant parties and
within six months:
(a) report on the perspectives of the parties with regard to the
security and political dimensions of the dispute;
(b) prepare a resumé of the factual and legal bases of the dispute;
and
(c) offer options for resolution.
2. Organise an informal consultation for members of the Peace and
Security Council (PSC) – modelled on the UN Security Council´s "Arria
Formula" sessions – involving presentations by eminent scholars,
political analysts and legal experts.
3. Pending final resolution of the dispute, grant Somaliland interim
observer status so that both sides can attend sessions on Somali
issues, make presentations and respond to questions from member
states and generally be assured of a fair hearing.
Hargeysa/Addis Ababa/Brussels, 23 May 2006
Source: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4131
Photo: National Flag of Somaliland
By: Abdulazez Al-Motairi
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